💡 Lose This Level and it's Lights Out
PLUS is Layer Zero season coming soon?
🗞 Market commentary.
GM future krillionaiers.
Unless you keep insta-buying freshly minted celebrity tokens, like the poor souls who got rugged on the latest Sydney Sweeney coin launch. Are most of these celebrities and rappers broke? Credit (and not paying taxes) is one hell of a drug...
Back to business: Bitcoin is teetering on the critical production cost line of $60,000. If the bears have any backbone, they need to start closing below. But, all we see for now is a prolonging of the chop, which eventually leads to a typical all-summer consolidation and, eventually, typical bull run length.
On the macro front, US market disinflation is making a comeback, which will eventually push the FED to cut rates. However, once again, patience is required, and Powell himself confirmed that the 2% target is probably not coming this year or even next year.
Will this be a bearish or bullish event if we see rate cuts at the end of next year or early 2026? Let us know what you think!
📊 Luke’s Chart of the Day
BTC/USDT Binance 1D Log Chart
Ichimoku is a great trend-based system, but the price inside the cloud is typically trendless - the chop zone. However, ‘edge to edge’ trades often play out. When you close in the cloud from above or below, there is a better than average probability that price will travel to the opposite edge. June 20 we got the first daily close inside. Since then I’ve been expecting to touch the opposite end. We’ve come close on June 24, but no cigar yet.
Also down, there is a significant moving average, the 200-day MA. This is typically viewed as a bull/bear pivot. A successful test is bullish for continuation. Close below—no bueno. We must reclaim. The last time we tested it was mid-August, when we nuked straight through, and it took a month of consolidation to reclaim. When we did, it was the start of $BTC’s massive run from 28 to 74k.
Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!
🔥 Degen corner.
Feeling weary? Time for some Tapioca
As the legendary Messi might say, quality passive income from DeFi (incooom) is a goal we investors and the DeFi community strive to achieve. Especially during bearish days like this one, it’s crucial to have a steady stream of dry powder ready to deploy.
Seeing how bullishly ZRO has behaved since Saturday, it’s reasonable to suspect a Layer Zero season might be just around the corner.
Right, if we combine a need for passive incoom and the best Layer Zero beta, where does it lead us? Yes, exactly: Tapioca DAO. I personally look forward to adding to this premium Layer Zero project and perhaps the best up-and-coming Curve competitor.
If you still haven’t caught up, here’s all you need to know.
👀 DeFi insights.
The important bits.
eBTC (DeFi) - Protocol metrics and analysis released by Blockanalitica - read
Mantle (L2) - Earn points using Vertex during Metamorphosis Season 1 - read
io.net (DePIN) - Partners with GamerHash - read
Unstoppable (DeFi) - Adds PENDLE leverage trading & lending markets - read
Avantis (DeFi) - Added OKX wallet support - read
📰 DeFi news.
Even more important bits.
Sydney Sweeney's hacked X account promotes crypto token - read
CoinDCX acquires BitOasis in a bid to expand globally - read
Crypto bank Signum, asset manager Fidelity tie up with Chainlink - read
Aave’s GHO stablecoin goes live on Arbitrum - read
South Korea ramps up crypto regulations - read
🫠 ICYMI.
Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.
Bitcoin Evolution: Glyph Exchainge, BRC20, and L2s
Podcast
In this episode, Jedi and Zack from Botanix Labs dive into Bitcoin from a fresh perspective.
Zack shares insights about the challenges of making Bitcoin more interesting and useful beyond just a savings account, drawing comparisons to the versatile Ethereum ecosystem.
Tune in on Spotify | YouTube →
Memecoins Are on Their Way Out, What’s Next?
In this episode of Still Early, Dom shares updates on his recent developments in the NFT space.
Dom offers insights into the shifting focus from NFTs to more liquid and accessible meme coins, using major events like Pepe's rise as examples.
Tune in on Spotify | YouTube →
🐥 Tweet of the day.
To save you doom scrolling.
Yea, Y2kappa, the German government should find some bulls, quick…
🦍 And finally…
This price action and overall sentiment toward DeFi make me excited about the future of projects with real product market fit, use cases, and revenue metrics. After CVX, we’ll check on another one tomorrow.
stay safe homies,
Hix0n 🫡
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