🗞 Market commentary.
GM, let’s embrace the pain together.
The grand, merciless beast we call The Market is making one thing abundantly clear: the passage into the glory land of the True Bull won’t be granted easily. And that’s precisely what we’re finding out now after we’ve been ‘effin’ with the $60,000 price level for quite some time. The message is simple here: either we quickly get back close to this level or, at best, above it and start closing there, or it’s time to prepare for a season of hopium withdrawal (and come back in September).
As if the streets weren’t bloody enough, the German government is adding fuel to the fire, dumping its remaining $175 million in BTC.
And there’s more: The good old Mt.Gox FUD is reaching its peak. Mt. Gox is currently prepping a $9 billion BTC distribution, sending portions to selected exchanges. From here, the exchanges will distribute the bitcoins to users' accounts. Now, even though past Mt.Gox users are getting only a portion of their BTC back, it’s still a hefty sum for many. After a 10 year long forced HODL, it’s understandable at least half of them, if not more, will want to get liquid.
📊 Luke’s Chart of the Day
BTC/USDT Binance 1D Log Chart
To follow up on yesterday’s chart, we hit the 200-day MA level at the bottom of the cloud, and so far, there has not been much of a reaction from buyers. The Germans are selling 40k of corn, and MT Gox is distributing, which has added up to max fear and not a lot on the bid side.
We need to reclaim the 200-day MA and get back into the mid $60k’s for a reason to be bullish. If we can’t do that, the next reasonable support is at $52k. Not a bullish update, but we have to be realistic. The $71k to $61k weekly consolidation range looks to be kaput at this point. It’s still possible for the price to climb back above $61.5k before Monday, but perhaps not likely.
Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!
🔥 Degen corner.
Back to Fundamentals
Sooner or later, the narrative will shift—maybe due to regulatory changes for altcoins, the prospect of sharing protocol revenue with holders, the impact of Ethereum ETFs, or something else. But the time will come when protocols like AAVE start shining again.
After Convex Finance (mentioned last time here), AAVE is another legitimate, battle-tested on-chain business with a proven track record. It generates about $480M in annualized fees.
If you want to fill out your time while waiting for the green to come back, use services like Token Terminal displayed above and make a list of the most undervalued protocols based on metrics like fees, total valuation, revenue, and P/S and P/F ratios.
👀 DeFi insights.
The important bits.
Core DAO (DeFi on Bitcoin) - Launched Core token ETP on Spotlight Stock Market - read
Unstoppable (DeFi) - Adds PENDLE leverage trading & lending markets - read
Avantis (DeFi) - Added OKX wallet support - read
Infinex (DeFi) - Craterun campaign starting today - read
Friend Tech (SocialFi) - Is Friend Tech leaving Base? - read
📰 DeFi news.
Even more important bits.
Telegram-based Notcoin rises to popularity in Africa, Europe, Asia - read
Opera Mini’s Crypto Wallet adds USDT USDC support - read
CoinDCX acquires BitOasis in a bid to expand globally - read
🫠 ICYMI.
Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.
Revealed: Karak’s Three-Part Strategy for Staking Success
Podcast
In this episode of Still Early, Grant chats with Dewpey from Karak about the innovative restaking protocol they're developing.
🐥 Tweet of the day.
To save you doom scrolling.
When the times are darkest, we meme. Recommended video.
🦍 And finally…
And yes, finally, some of that hopium. In case The Market doesn’t allow us into the True Bull right away, we’re most likely about to see a prolonged reset, which will eventually be reflected in a much longer and probably healthier bull market cycle.
stay safe homies,
Hix0n 🫡
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