🙃 Sentiment Check
PLUS stake your Bitcoin without giving up custody!
🗞 Market commentary.
GM, we meet again.
Bitcoin closed the weekly under our endlessly mentioned line in the sand of $60,000, and it’s important to come up with the terms of this bearish scenario. The most important thing to remember here is that even though we likely have more downside ahead this week, we’re thinking about this as an opportunity, not the end of the bull market.
Look at the sentiment—it’s a carbon copy of June 2023. And we all know what happened once we got through the last dry summer. Except this time, we’re heading into an election-year Q4, and according to the new Citi Forecast predictions, there might be as many as 8 rate cuts ahead. After all, it would make perfect sense for the FED to engineer a bullish market rally to bolster the current administration.
Lastly, we’ll get a taste of what’s coming during this week. FED’s chief Jerome will speak tomorrow. CPI and PPI data drop on Thursday and Friday, and there are a total of nine FED speaking events this week. It’s about to get spicy.
📊 Luke’s Chart of the Day
BTC/USDT 1D Coinalyze Aggregated Long / Short Ratio
This data shows us $BTC futures positioning. Net long accounts divided by net short accounts. It is a good overall sentiment indicator, and the sentiment is still very much net long. If you look back to when we pumped from 25k in mid to late October 2023, sentiment had reset to 1:1 long versus short. Again, when we consolidated in the low 40k’s, sentiment reset just after we pumped. This says to me sentiment had been crushed. Longs closed early, and the ratio went back to 1. Nobody believed much higher prices were coming.
This is the absence of hopium we need to send us much higher. If you check out the Coinalyze funding rate chart, it tells a similar story, this time tied to actual positioning, not account ratio. Flip to the 1D timeframe and backtest to when we pumped last year.
Come by the Lucky Luke Discord channel for comments, to roast my picks or to pump your own bags. All banter is welcome any time!
🔥 Degen corner.
Stake Your Bitcoins
Sure, HODLing BTC is nice, but earning yield on it without giving up custody? Even better. Even though DeFi on Bitcoin was something previously unthinkable, Core DAO is making it become a reality as we speak.
Currently, about 4,500 BTC have been delegated, securing the Core Chain. If you’re interested, you can learn how to stake and earn with your BTC right here.
The fun doesn’t stop here with Core. The Ignition Program will run for more than two more months, so there’s an opportunity to use the dry summer price action to play around with incentive opportunities.
Register here to join the Ignition Program
Bridge assets to Core Chain here
Explore all reward opportunities here
Enjoy!
👀 DeFi insights.
The important bits.
Napier Finance (DeFi) - Reached 5,000,000$ TVL on day 1 - read
Infinex (DeFi) - Deposit MOG to get rewarded with crates - read
Celestia (TIA) - 89% of the circulating supply will unlock October 31st - read
Odos (DEX) - Adds limit orders - read
API3 (Oracles) - Teases news “Get ready” - read
Solv Protocol (DeFi) - Introduces “Liquid Bitcoin Staking” - read
📰 DeFi news.
Even more important bits.
GTA 6 rumored to have cryptocurrency in-game payments - read
Germany surprises with $111 BTC buyback - read
Ethereum ETFs pushed back to July 15th - read
Spot BTC ETFs see record inflows during the dip - read
During Q4, FTX will distribute $16B in cash to traders - read
Entire ETH ETF open interest got unwound - read
🫠 ICYMI.
Life gets busy so here’s what you’ve missed.
Cardano, The Chang Fork and More: A Journey Through Crypto's Most Fascinating Blockchain
Research
We've covered the Chang fork/Voltaire upgrade, why it's happening, and what's changing.
Brownbaconx has looked under the hood and put his pen to paper on whether it's worth your attention, so dig into below...
Ethereum Layer 3 Blockchains Explained | Sanko, Degen, XAI, Cheese
Podcast
In this episode, you will learn all about Layer 3 blockchains. As Ethereum continues to scale on its rollup-centric roadmap, layer 2 blockchains are now beginning to host their own rollups, which are layer 3s.
Tune in on YouTube →
🐥 Tweet of the day.
To save you doom scrolling.
This is a great reminder from Bunny to always secure your profits. It’s highly likely that most of our new revolutionary assets will end up the same during the next bear market.
🦍 And finally…
We’re seeing a nice market bounce right now, but I’d hold off on any celebrations just yet. Let’s see how this week turns out. If you got caught in this price action, it’s now more important than ever to be careful not to get chopped out. A lot of people will lose lots of positions this summer.
stay safe homies,
Hix0n 🫡
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